Mahayuti vs Maha Vikas in Maharashtra, who will win the last big battle of 2024

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Counting of votes for the Maharashtra Assembly election - a straight fight between the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi - begins at 8 am Saturday, with a majority of the 11 exit polls studied by News Agency leaning heavily towards the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance.


The MVA - fronted by the Congress and the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar - has been given a (very) slim chance of upsetting the BJP's applecart in the final major election of the year; only one exit poll believes it can win.


Three others are on the fence, although one has tilted towards the MVA and the other the Mahayuti, which includes the Sena and NCP groups led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.


Voting for the Maharashtra Assembly's 288 seats was held Wednesday in single phase. The majority mark is 145, and an average of the 11 exit polls gives the Mahayuti 155 seats.


The MVA is expected to get 120 seats and smaller parties and independent candidates 13.


But a health warning: exit polls often get it wrong.

Exit Poll Numbers

The nine exit polls that predict victory for the Mahayuti all expect it to be a dominant performance.


In fact, of those nine Axis-My India, Peoples Pulse, Poll Diary, and Today's Chanakya have each given the BJP-led alliance a minimum of 175 seats. Chanakya Strategies, Matrize, and Times Now-JVC also expect victory for the BJP's coalition, with at least 150 seats.


Across the aisle, only Electoral Edge expects the Congress' alliance to win and, even then, by five seats only, with 20 seats from smaller parties and independents in play for the BJP.

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The Dainik Bhaskar, Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra, and P-Marq exit polls are on the fence, although the latter favours the Mahayuti with an upper prediction of 157 and the former the MVA with 150.


However, Thackeray Sena MP Sanjay Raut has rubbished the predictions, pointing to incorrect previews of the Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir elections and insisting the MVA will win.

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"They said Congress would win Haryana but what happened? They said Modiji would get 400 seats in the Lok Sabha... but what happened there? You will see... we will win 160-165 seats," he declared.

Voter Turnout

Polling on Wednesday saw a voter turnout of 65.1 per cent - the highest since the 63.4 per cent recorded for the 2004 and 2014 elections and the second highest since 71.5 per cent in 1995.


The increased voter turnout has been flagged by both alliances as 'proof positive' that their side will emerge triumphant when votes are counted, although conventional wisdom suggests high voter turnout is bad news for the incumbent party or candidate.

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Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis declared, "Increase in voting percentage means it is in favour of the current government... it means people are supporting the current government."

Race For Chief Minister's Post

Meanwhile, away from the ballot boxes there is jostling and shoving offstage as senior figures within each alliance bid to replace Mr Shinde as Chief Minister. And that race looks to have exposed cracks in each alliance, with each party talking up its candidates for the top post.


Claims by the Congress' state unit chief, Nana Patole, that his party would emerge as the single-largest and therefore be in pole position to pick the Chief Minister have been contested by Mr Raut, who said the final decision will be taken after victory is confirmed and by all stakeholders.

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In the Mahayuti, the Shinde Sena and the BJP appear to be at odds on the same issue, with the former batting for Mr Shinde to continue and the latter pitching Mr Fadnavis, who was the Chief Minister when the BJP and (then) undivided Sena were in power between 2014 and 2019.


And the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar has thrown its hat in the ring too, on the back of hopes it will emerge as the 'kingmaker', although the question of which side it will help crown was waved away.

What Happened In 2019?

The 2019 election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and the undivided Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).


However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP.


Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.


Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister.


The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.


Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the 'real' one.

With input from agencies

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