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For the two main political parties in Delhi, the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the primary challenger, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the upcoming electoral battle for the 70-seat Delhi assembly on February 5 may seem like a battle of manifestos. This is why both parties have been releasing their poll promises in instalments. In fact, when BJP chief and Union Minister J.P. Nadda released the party's first ‘Sankalp Patra' on January 5, he revealed that it would be released in three parts. The party's third and last manifesto is set to be unveiled by Union Home Minister Amit Shah on January 25. The central theme of the first instalment was women's welfare.
What BJP Has On Offer
The Sankalp Patra promises one-time financial assistance of Rs 21,000 and six nutritional kits for pregnant women, as well as Rs 5,000 for the first child and Rs 6,000 for the second child. Nadda also announced the Mahila Smriddhi Yojana, under which women will receive assistance of Rs 2,500 per month. Also, referring to the AAP's 2021 promise to provide Rs 1,000 to women, Nadda alleged that the party had failed to fulfil its promises in both Punjab and Delhi.
The second part of the Sankalp Patra, released two weeks later, focused on youth and students. It promises free education from “KG to PG” (kindergarten to post-graduation) for needy students in government institutions. It also includes financial assistance for competitive exam aspirants, scholarships for Scheduled Caste students, and welfare measures for autorickshaw drivers and domestic workers. BJP MP and former Union Minister Anurag Thakur, while unveiling the second instalment of promises, announced that if the party wins the election, it will form a dedicated SIT to probe all alleged corruption cases under the AAP government in Delhi. The party also offered a lump sum of ₹15,000 in financial assistance for competitive exam preparations. “We will help cover their commuting costs to appear in exams. The government will also pay the entrance exam fee twice,” Thakur said.
A Battle For The Middle Class
According to Election Commission data, Delhi has about 1.55 crore registered voters. It may seem unusual that political parties are scrambling for such a small base of urbanised voters, but a BJP candidate from East Delhi explains the rationale. He says his party feels the need to improve its strategy and enhance its offers to voters to counter the efforts of AAP convener and former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. “We face the challenge of countering his narrative on a daily basis,” the MLA admitted.
As for Kejriwal, after winning three elections in a row, he is desperate to retain Delhi. Confident that people from disadvantaged sections and minorities will rally behind him due to the freebies he has offered, Kejriwal has sought to disrupt the middle-class support base of the BJP by posing a set of demands to the Centre on their behalf. While his strategy of swaying middle-class votes may not yield immediate results, it's believed that he might gain some comfort by testing the waters.
BJP Can Take Heart
Within the Delhi BJP itself, opinion is divided on how well the AAP will fare in the elections. There is a faction that feels that the AAP may still have an edge in slum clusters due to the freebies it has already provided. However, unfulfilled demands for piped water and the AAP's alleged collusion with the tanker lobby could erode its support base. This is a view shared by many Delhi BJP leaders, and it has boosted their confidence that they can trounce AAP. Most candidates believe that the party will improve on its Lok Sabha performance, in which it had secured 54.3% votes. “For the past six months, both our party workers and Sangh karyakartas [workers] have been working in slum clusters, which have traditionally been the AAP's support base. Our party has been working in these jhuggi-jhopdi clusters. For once, we are not worried about Kejriwal's freebies,” pointed out a BJP candidate.
It remains to be seen whether the BJP can sustain or improve its performance on February 5. In his inaugural campaign in Delhi on January 5, PM Modi assured Delhiites that all the freebies the AAP had been providing would continue if the BJP is voted to power. Such assurances may have made Kejriwal briefly feel vindicated about his policies. However, he also knows that an all-out campaign by RSS-BJP cadres can very well dampen his prospects. Kejriwal is aware that PM Modi, who kickstarted the Delhi poll campaign by referring to the AAP-led government as an “aapda” (disaster), has dealt a body blow to his plans for a ‘comeback', the word that most aptly defines the mood of the upcoming polls. “The BJP can develop Delhi. In the last 10 years, Delhi has seen a state government that is nothing less than an aapda (disaster). Delhiites can feel this now. There is only one chant in Delhi: aapda nahi sahenge, badal ke rahenge (we will not tolerate a disaster, we will change it),” PM Modi said in his rally. Referring to BJP's recent electoral victories in Haryana and Maharashtra, he described this as a “golden opportunity to win the heart of Delhi”. He also pointed out that while the Centre had provided Rs 12,220 crore for the Delhi Metro Corridor development and even supplied 1,200 e-buses, the AAP government had failed to improve even basic infrastructure like sewage systems and roads.
The Congress Factor
BJP sources believe that the success of limiting the AAP's numbers in the 70-member Delhi Assembly will also depend on how well the Congress performs in these elections. Indications are that the Congress has overcome its initial hesitation about opposing the AAP. It has lined up a couple of rallies and public interactions with Rahul Gandhi, and has also been using the CAG reports to attack the Kejriwal government over corruption. Ironically, the AAP and the Congress had jointly contested the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, though they failed to win even one of them. Ultimately, they parted ways during the Haryana assembly polls.
While the Congress may still be unsure about its approach to Kejriwal, the BJP has already upped the pressure. The party has got Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to address at least 14 rallies in the city. In his first rally, Yogi reminded the AAP chief about his plans to clean the Yamuna under the Namami Gange project, and asked whether he would be able to take a dip in the river with his Cabinet ministers, as he had done in the Sangam. PM Modi's question was interesting too: why does Kejriwal keep making new promises? “The AAP has been making new announcements every day because it's losing ground every day. They are getting exposed,” he said.
(Lakshmi Iyer has been covering politics for four decades in Delhi & Mumbai. She is on X @liyer)