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The rebels in Syria fought against the Bashar al-Assad regime for 13 years but failed to dislodge him from power. And then in a lightning offensive that lasted less than 13 days, the five-decade rule of the Assad family was decimated and the President was forced to flee the country. Behind the rebels' shocking advance was careful planning, the changing power balance in the Middle East, and tacit backing from a key regional player.
The Timing
The rebels knew that the Assad regime was at its most vulnerable. Over the past decade, the Syrian President had used the firepower of its key allies, Russia and Iran, to beat back any resistance to his regime. But Moscow was caught up with its war in Ukraine and Tehran was fighting Israel. With Assad's allies distracted, Damascus was fully exposed. Also, Hezbollah, which played a key role in Assad's fight against the rebels, suffered major losses after Tel Aviv wiped out its leader Hassan Nasrallah and several other commanders. With a ceasefire coming into force in Lebanon on November 27, Hezbollah licked its wounds and refused to fight Assad's war with rebels. Syria was also battling internal issues. A source told news agency Reuters that tanks and planes had no fuel due to large-scale corruption and loot. Celebrating the fall of the Assad regime, some Syria residents said many Syrians had fled to Lebanon because they did not want to fight their countrymen. The Syrian forces were, therefore, unequipped, low on morale and bereft of allies. The rebels knew this was their chance and they took it.
Turkey's Role
As the Assad regime collapsed, Turkey's deputy minister for foreign affairs, Nuh Yilmaz, said at a conference in Bahrain that Ankara was not behind the offensive and did not provide consent. He said it was concerned about instability.
But there is no way the rebels would have moved ahead with a signal from Turkey. About six months ago, the rebels communicated to Ankara their plans for a major offensive and felt they had received its tacit approval, two sources have told Reuters. Turkey has long backed the Syrian opposition, although it considers the main force in the rebel alliance, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terror group.
The all-out offensive, it is learnt, was the brainchild of HTS and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani. HTS started as Nusra Front with links with al-Qaeda. Golani is designated a terrorist in several countries, including the US, UK and Turkey. Over the past decade, however, he and his organisation have tried to soften its image.
Turkey's foreign and defence ministries have not responded directly to Reuters questions about whether there was an understanding between HTS and Ankara about the Aleppo operation. A Turkish official told Reuters that HTS "does not receive orders or direction from us (and) does not coordinate its operations with us either." The official said that "in that sense" it would not be correct to say that the operation in Aleppo was carried out with Turkey's approval.
title="Recep Erdogan and Bashar al Assad back in 2011" />Recep Erdogan and Bashar al Assad back in 2011
Ankara's Interests
The war in Syria has driven a wave of refugees into Turkey and this has become a domestic issue too. For long, it has urged the Bashar al-Assad regime, once a close ally, for a political solution to the problem but got little response. Damascus saw this as a weakness and insisted on the complete withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria. This was not an option for Ankara because it feared this would lead to a further influx of refugees. And then Moscow pulled the last straw. Alexander Lavrentiev, Russia's special envoy to Syria, called Turkey an "occupying force" in Syria and said it was "too soon" for talks between Ankara and Damascus.
The rebels sensed that the Recep Tayyip Erdogan dispensation was not happy with Damascus rebuffing its outreach. A Syrian opposition source told Reuters that the rebels had shown Turkey details of the planning after Ankara's attempts to engage Assad failed. The message was: "That other path hasn't worked for years - so try ours. You don't have to do anything, just don't intervene."
As Damascus sees a regime change, Turkey has reason to be relieved. Its tacit support to the rebels may pave the way for peace on the border and also help it eliminate the resistance from groups such as the YPG that it has fought for years.
Turkey now hopes that peace in Syria will create an atmosphere conducive to the return of refugees. There is, however, a risk: if the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime starts another phase of instability, Ankara may be dealing with another refugee crisis.
title="Israel fighter jets conducted aerial attacks on several targets inside Syria " />Israel fighter jets conducted aerial attacks on several targets inside Syria
Israel Another Winner
Another winner in the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime is Israel. The regime change in Damascus has blocked the route through which Iran provided arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tel Aviv can now effectively wipe out an already-weakened Hezbollah. Moving fast after the rebels took Damascus, Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck dozens of targets across Syria, taking out weaponry that it feared could fall into the hands of the rebels, the Times of Israel reported. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has welcomed the change in Syria, calling it a historic day. He also said its offensive against Hezbollah was instrumental in the regime change in Syria.
"This collapse is a direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad's main supporters. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its suppression. But it also means we have to take action against possible threats. One of them is the collapse of the Separation of Forces agreement from 1974 between Israel and Syria. This agreement held for 50 years. Last night it collapsed," he said.
Israel has now taken charge of a demilitarised buffer zone on its border with Syria. "This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found. We're going to follow events very carefully. If we can establish neighbourly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we'll do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel," Netanyahu said.