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Political turbulence in Maharashtra continues unabated, even after the assembly elections. Speculation is rife that eight MPs and ten MLAs from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Sharad Pawar, are poised to join Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar's faction. Reports suggest these legislators are in close contact with Ajit Pawar's group and may announce their decision soon. There's also talk of a potential reconciliation between the two factions of the NCP.
There are whispers that Sharad Pawar himself may join the ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra and align with the NDA government at the Centre. Efforts to resolve strained relationships at multiple levels seem to be underway to facilitate this transition.
Never one to shy away from a political challenge, Sharad Pawar, who has been grappling with isolation and a diminishing power base alongside his daughter, Supriya Sule, appears to be exploring new permutations to strike the best possible deal. As the saying goes, in politics, anything is possible.
However, predicting Sharad Pawar's moves is no easy task. Political observers warn that any forecast about his next steps is fraught with risk.
Factors Driving a Reunion
The push for reconciliation began with a plea from Ajit Pawar's mother, who urged the entire Pawar clan to come together following the assembly elections. This appeal was followed by encouraging signals from key stakeholders.
Chandrashekhar Bawankule, state BJP chief and considered close to Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, recently stated that the BJP has no objection to a Sharad-Ajit reunion. Similarly, Ajit Pawar's close ally, Praful Patel, has expressed support for the idea.
The possibility of a rapprochement gained further traction after the UBT-led Shiv Sena's mouthpiece Saamana praised Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis for his work in Naxal-affected Gadchiroli. Sharad Pawar's NCP has also been warming up to Fadnavis.
The buzz intensified when Baramati MP and NCP leader Supriya Sule praised Chief Minister Fadnavis, who recently assumed office.
"The only person who is working very hard is Devendra Fadnavis; no one else is visible. Devendra ji is focused and working in mission mode, which is a good thing. We wish him all the best," Sule said.
Despite these overtures, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP has not officially confirmed any move toward reconciliation.
"Some MPs and MLAs feel that being in the opposition will hinder development work in their constituencies over the next five years. Without access to government funds, they may struggle to deliver results. This has fuelled discussions about aligning with Ajit Pawar," said Amol Matele, state spokesperson and Youth Mumbai President of the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP.
Sources suggest groundwork for the reunion is already underway, with discussions taking place in Mumbai and Delhi to finalize the alliance. The primary sticking point remains Sharad Pawar's concerns about securing a ministerial position at the Centre for his daughter.
Weighing the Possibilities
The leadership question within the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra has been resolved following Ajit Pawar's success in the assembly elections. Ajit Pawar has emerged as the de facto leader, a status cemented by his decision to ally with the NDA and the Mahayuti coalition.
With Ajit Pawar's faction already recognized as the "real" NCP by the Election Commission of India, Sharad Pawar appears to be strategizing for an image-saving compromise. The Sharad Pawar faction (NCP-SP) also seems open to the delineated roles of Supriya Sule and Ajit Pawar in a possible reunited party.
"When the NCP was united, Supriya Sule was focused on national politics in the Lok Sabha, while Ajit Pawar handled key decisions in Maharashtra. Party workers are well aware of this dynamic. The idea that there is political competition between Sule and Ajit Pawar is a manufactured narrative with no basis," says Amol Matele.
If the NCP(SP) MPs were to join the NDA, it would bolster the NDA's strength in both Houses of Parliament.
Analyzing the unfolding political developments, senior journalist and commentator Rohit Chandavarkar observes: "Those familiar with Sharad Pawar believe he is unlikely to officially or openly align with the NDA or the BJP-led alliance for two reasons. Firstly, he has consistently upheld a left-of-center ideology. In every rally, he reiterates his commitment to the principles of Mahatma Phule, Chhatrapati Sahu, and Dr. Ambedkar. It's unlikely he will abandon this path at the age of 84. Secondly, Sharad Pawar has confided to close associates that the BJP has a history of not sustaining alliances with its partners. Look at what happened with the Akali Dal and Uddhav Thackeray. Pawar fears that aligning with the BJP would jeopardize long-term prospects for his daughter Supriya Sule and other NCP leaders, as the BJP tends to dominate and sideline its allies."
Meanwhile, leaders from the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)-comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP-have dismissed the rumours, asserting that Sharad Pawar remains committed to the alliance. Any rapprochement with the BJP or NDA would be detrimental to the MVA in Maharashtra and the INDIA bloc at the national level.
Yet, given Sharad Pawar's political style, few are willing to predict his next move. "Currently, Sharad Pawar has limited options for continuing as an independent political force in Maharashtra. But, as always with Pawar, nothing can be predicted with certainty," Chandavarkar concludes.
(The author is Contributing Editor, News Agency)