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A day after the Delhi election results, when newspapers were filled with micro-analysis of how Congress candidates in as many as 14 assembly constituencies—such as New Delhi, Jangpura, Greater Kailash, and Sangam Vihar—received more votes than the winning margins in those constituencies, murmurs began about the real reasons behind the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) victory over Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidates. There was also lament over why AAP managed to win only 22 seats—14 short of the majority mark—despite the vote percentage difference between the BJP and AAP being a narrow 2%. The BJP secured a vote share of 45.76%, while AAP's share stood at 43.55%, and the Congress's at 6.36%.
Recovering Lost Ground
In 2020, AAP had won 62 seats with a vote share of 53.57%. This means it lost 10% of its vote share this year—translating into a loss of around 40 seats. Meanwhile, the BJP, which had a 38.51% vote share in 2020, gained over 7%, securing 40 seats. Arguably, the Congress played a crucial role in AAP's loss in many constituencies. The party's vote share rose by 2 percentage points, from 4.26% to 6.36%, cutting into AAP's vote base—or, one might say, reclaiming its lost support.
Despite expectations that the Delhi assembly polls would witness a division of Muslim votes between AAP and the Congress, the community largely stood by AAP. The party managed to win six out of the seven Muslim-dominated seats, with the exception of the riot-hit Mustafabad in North-East Delhi, which was secured by the BJP's Mohan Singh Bisht.
As the dust settled on the elections, AAP's Okhla MLA, Amanatullah Khan, blamed Congress for his party's exit from power. He even went so far as to argue that Congress had no business contesting the elections—a charge that the party dismissed as absurd. Khan accused Congress of prioritising AAP's defeat over its own electoral success. “The Congress contested the election not to win but to ensure our defeat. Rahul Gandhi came to campaign in my constituency for the first time ever. They knew they had no chance of winning but were determined to make us lose,” he said. He further insisted that AAP was the dominant secular force in Delhi, not Congress, and that the Congress's actions had ultimately helped the BJP come to power.
No More 'Project Kejriwal'
For the first time, the Congress did not fall for the so-called secular bait. The party was unfazed by what it had done in the past to keep 'Project Kejriwal' afloat. Khan's accusations seem particularly misplaced given that AAP might not have survived or grown if the Congress had not extended a lifeline to the fledgling party back in 2013.
Despite Kejriwal defeating then Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, AAP, with just 28 MLAs, was far short of the halfway mark of 36. The Congress, with its eight MLAs, lent support to keep out the BJP, which had finished first with 31 MLAs. A delayed election by the Modi government in 2015 allowed Kejriwal to consolidate his position, leading to AAP's landslide victory with 67 seats. Five years later, AAP lost some ground but still secured 62 seats in the 70-member House.
This time, however, the political equations shifted, and Congress, rather than being a silent supporter, became an active player—much to AAP's chagrin. Interestingly, for the first time, the Congress was not defensive about a breach in a so-called “secular” coalition. The party no longer cared if it was going to be blamed for the rout of Kejriwal and his team.
A Paradox
While some Delhi and Haryana BJP leaders felt that the Congress had the potential to push its vote share up to 12% if it had made more efforts—and maybe even secured a few seats—it likely failed to do so because the Gandhis did not actively push for a Congress win. Most Congress candidates were seen making efforts on their own, it was pointed out. While some Delhi Congress leaders were content that the party's vote share had increased, others, like senior leader Narendra Nath, asserted that his party had contested the elections to win. He attributed the Congress's improved performance to its proactive campaign under Delhi chief Devender Yadav, his Delhi Nyay Yatra, and the timely announcement of strong candidates to help restore public faith in the party. Yadav was almost seen as a frontrunner from the Badli seat, where he polled 41,000 votes.
It may seem like a paradox, but for once, Congress leaders are not complaining about a BJP win in Delhi. The Delhi results may inspire the Congress to indulge in a game of one-upmanship within the INDIA bloc. Many senior Congress leaders across the country heaved a sigh of relief that the AAP experiment was over in Delhi. “Kejriwal had to go for Congress to grow in Delhi and Punjab. Kejriwal was eating into our vitals, into our support. Now Congress has to reclaim its votes,” said a party leader.
Comeback Mode?
It was felt that following the Delhi results, a similar treatment should be meted out to other breakaway groups from Congress that were sharing the same voter base. The Delhi elections sent a strong message to INDIA alliance parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). “We are, after all, a national party with an all-India outreach. These regional players should not forget that Congress can never be written off,” observed a Congress leader. With three members of the Gandhi family in Parliament, Congress leaders almost feel that the party is in a comeback mode.
(Lakshmi Iyer has been covering politics for four decades in Delhi & Mumbai. She is on X @liyer).