Refugee crisis, Kurdistan issue: What is Türkiye's "new reality" in Syria?

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsed in just 13 days of rebel offensive after 24 years of rule, leaving a political vacuum in its capital Damascus. While the rapid downfall was not entirely unexpected, its speed has left Turkey, along with other foreign actors, scrambling for power. Turkey, now the dominant external force in Syria, faces a "new reality", according to its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan.


"There is now a new reality in Syria, politically and diplomatically. And Syria belongs to Syrians with all its ethnic, sectarian and religious elements," Erdogan said as quoted by news agency Reuters. "The people of Syria are the ones who will decide the future of their own country."

The Collapse

The collapse of Assad's government was preceded by a coordinated offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an armed group with historical ties to al-Qaeda. What began as a limited campaign - backed implicitly by Turkey - quickly escalated into a full-scale assault. Within days, major cities like Aleppo and Hama fell to rebel forces, and the Syrian Army retreated to defensive positions around Damascus.

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Turkey, a long-time backer of Syrian opposition forces, had initially aimed for a smaller operation to ease pressure on its borders and counter Kurdish militias allied with the Kurdistan Workers' Party or PKK. According to reports, the sudden expansion of the offensive caught Ankara by surprise. Senior officials in President Erdogan's administration had anticipated Assad's eventual fall but not at this pace.

Turkey's Strategy

For years, Turkey has played a role in Syria's civil war, supporting opposition forces while conducting its own military operations against Kurdish militias in northern Syria. Erdogan's government has sought to create a buffer zone along its southern border and curb the ambitions of Kurdish groups seeking autonomy and creating a sovereign nation called Kurdistan.


The swift fall of Aleppo and Hama has created opportunities for Ankara to shape post-Assad Syria, but it also raises concerns about instability, refugee flows, and the growing influence of HTS.

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Turkey has sought to moderate HTS over the years. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has made overtures to minorities, pledged to preserve Syria's institutional structures, and expressed interest in dialogue with Russia. However, despite his assurances, the group's jihadist roots remain a point of contention.

Refugee Politics

One of Turkey's most immediate concerns is the return of Syrian refugees. Hosting over 3 million Syrians, Erdogan's government has faced domestic backlash over the prolonged presence of these displaced people. The fall of Assad has sparked hope among refugees for a return to their homeland.

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In Aleppo, factories and industrial centres are reportedly reopening. However, the return of refugees will depend on the establishment of security, economic stability, and basic infrastructure. Turkey is likely to play a central role in coordinating reconstruction efforts.

The Kurdish Question

The fate of Kurdish-controlled territories remains an issue for Turkey. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is dominated by the US-backed People's Defense Units or YPG militia. However, Ankara views the YPG as an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist organisation under its laws. Turkey has conducted multiple military operations to push Kurdish forces away from its borders and consolidate control over northern Syria.

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The fall of Assad has complicated this dynamic. HTS, despite its Islamist background, has reportedly established a working relationship with the SDF in some areas. This development has raised concerns in Ankara, as it undermines Turkey's efforts to weaken Kurdish influence in Syria.