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title="Latest and Breaking News on News Agency" />When a ruling party falls short of its own majority in Parliament and depends on allies to cross the majority mark, the Prime Minister is usually considered vulnerable. A similar situation is emerging in the 18th Lok Sabha. There is a discernible expression of no confidence in Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of Opposition (LoP), from the INDIA bloc partners, reflected in both their behaviour and statements.
The LoP is not directly elected but is nominated by the Speaker. As doubts grow among the INDIA bloc partners about the Congress party's ability to be the alliance's pivot, Rahul Gandhi is likely to become a ‘lame duck' LoP in the coming months, without the active support of his allies. His attempts to impose his idiosyncrasies on fellow MPs in the Opposition have alienated major allies from the Congress.
Short-Lived Glory?
After the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi's political sheen seemed to be getting weaker. Following two rounds of state assembly elections, which saw the Congress suffer a drubbing while the BJP and NDA made a remarkable recovery, Modi's glitter has returned with a bang. Rahul Gandhi's own moment of glory came after June 4, when his party's strength doubled and he was recognised as the LoP by the Speaker. His newfound prominence continued through his visit to the United States but faded after the Haryana elections. Maharashtra further diminished his standing, and recent actions by allies suggest that the glow of June 4 has all gone.
The election of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra from Wayanad initially energised Congress workers, but in the absence of a defined role, she seems to be emerging as little more than an extension of her elder sibling. Rather than carving out a distinct identity, she is being viewed as a clone of Rahul Gandhi. She has begun to mirror his style of addressing the public.
INDIA Bloc May Be Falling Apart
Rahul Gandhi's reliance on soliloquy has become a political liability. His tired slogans— 'Chowkidar Chor Hai', and attacks on Adani-Ambani—failed to garner electoral support. The Supreme Court had criticised him for some of his baseless remarks, but he remains undeterred. His narrative of the Constitution being in danger created a mild stir, helping the Congress almost double its Lok Sabha seats. However, his predominance in the party has not led to widespread acceptance of his leadership among the INDIA bloc parties. He was appointed LoP because the Congress holds the largest number of seats in the opposition, but the INDIA bloc has yet to form a cohesive parliamentary front. The alliance remains limited to contesting some elections together, with no decisive leadership. A Samajwadi Party spokesman recently stated that the INDIA bloc “now exists largely in the media".
The INDIA bloc has failed to name a convenor or identify a leader after a year of discussions. Attempts by non-Congress parties to elevate Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge as the alliance's central figure were met with cold responses from his own party and were quickly forgotten. Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress, after initially suggesting the name of the bloc and later proposing Kharge's name, chose to go solo, ignoring both Congress and the CPI(M) in West Bengal. Trinamool not only increased its parliamentary tally but also retained its primacy in recent assembly by-elections, positioning itself as the dominant party in the state.
Why Rahul Is Losing Support
After the June 4 Lok Sabha results and Rahul Gandhi's aggressive stance as LoP in the first session of the 18th Lok Sabha, he seemed poised to become the main challenger to Narendra Modi. However, recent remarks by Trinamool's Rajya Sabha leader Derek O'Brien, followed by Mamata Banerjee's assertion, “I can run the INDIA bloc… if they can't run the show", have dampened his prospects. The support of figures like Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh Yadav (SP), and Tejaswi Yadav (RJD) for Mamata's leadership only highlights the diminishing support for Rahul Gandhi.
Rahul Gandhi's insistence on carrying on with a handful of narratives has caused further rifts in the opposition. MPs from Trinamool and the Samajwadi Party skipped Congress-led protests at Parliament's Makar Dwar, with allies feeling that his focus on personal agendas prevents the opposition from addressing more pressing national issues, as the House is disrupted endlessly.
When Rahul Gandhi was stopped at the Delhi-Uttar Pradesh border last week from proceeding to Sambhal, a motley group of around 200 Congress supporters—reflecting the party's diminished capacity for mass mobilisation—protested, claiming that he had been barred from performing his “constitutional duty".
How The LoP Post Evolved
The Leader of the Opposition (LoP) is appointed by the Speaker of the Lok Sabha. Contrary to claims that it is a Constitutional post, the LoP is actually a statutory position, created by an Act of Parliament in 1977. Constitutional posts are those established by the Founding Fathers of the Republic and are mentioned in the Constitution of India. The LoP, however, is not included in the Constitution.
India's Parliament did not have a recognised LoP until the Congress split in 1969. The Leader of the largest Opposition party—if its strength exceeds 10% of the total membership of the House—is recognised by the Speaker as LoP. The Fourth Lok Sabha had Dr. Ramsubhag Singh of Congress(O) as its LoP from December 17, 1969, until its premature dissolution on December 27, 1970. The Fifth Lok Sabha in 1971, like the First (1952), Second (1957), and Third (1962) Lok Sabhas, did not have a LoP.
The position of LoP initially emerged as a post for the leader of the Congress Party in Parliament whenever the Grand Old Party lost elections. Y.B. Chavan was LoP in 1977, and after Congress split that year, C.M. Stephen became LoP. There were no LoPs in the 7th and 8th Lok Sabhas, the last Houses in which Congress held a full majority. The 9th Lok Sabha saw defeated Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi as LoP. After that, there have been several LoPs, including Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani, P.V. Narasimha Rao, and Sushma Swaraj.
The position of LoP was vacant in the 16th and 17th Lok Sabhas, as Congress won only 52 and 44 seats, respectively, falling short of the required 54-seat threshold. With 99 seats, Rahul Gandhi is currently the LoP in the 18th Lok Sabha. Just like in the heydays of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, and Rajiv Gandhi, Narendra Modi's initial two terms also saw the Lok Sabha without a LoP. Now, with allies expressing doubts about Rahul Gandhi's ability to lead the opposition front, it appears that Modi's third term may see a ‘lame duck LoP'.
A Judgment From Allahabad
Meanwhile, political circles are abuzz with speculation regarding the outcome of Public Interest Litigation (PIL) number 831 of 2024, which is scheduled for hearing by a bench of the Allahabad High Court in Prayagraj on December 19. Rahul Gandhi is listed among the 13 respondents. The matter was previously raised in interviews by Subramaniam Swamy, and December 19 will mark the first mention of the case before a High Court. On June 12, 1975, a judgment from the Allahabad High Court significantly altered the course of Indian politics. Will Allahabad, the seat of the Nehru family, again change the trajectory of national politics?
(Shubhabrata Bhattacharya is a retired editor and a public affairs commentator)