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Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the US has proved to be well-timed. Rather than wait for the mercurial and unpredictable President Donald Trump to say and do things on his pet peeves, which include an obsession with tariffs, Modi took the initiative to engage him directly on exploring together how his concerns could be met—and India's too—in a constructive way.
It was a pre-emptive move by Modi, aimed at setting up at the earliest the tone of India-US bilateral ties during Trump's second presidency. Modi has gambled on the personal chemistry that he had established with Trump during his first term to make the visit and not let uncertainties cloud the existing positive atmosphere surrounding India-US relations.
Friends Inside
India could rely on the many Indian friends amongst the appointees to the second Trump administration—such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, and the director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard—to adequately cushion the ties from the unpredictable shocks that Trump could potentially administer. Trump, supremely self-confident in his second term, believes that he has the measure of all America's problems and is determined to use US power to get his way at the international level. It seems that he will listen to his advisors only to the extent that they support his thinking. This is positive in some ways, such as his desire to end the war in Ukraine, and highly negative in some other ways, such as his recipe for turning Gaza into a ‘Riviera', ignoring the terrible human cost inflicted on its 2-million-plus inhabitants.
It is in this context that an early Modi visit and a personal contact with Trump was an astute move. It is apparent that Trump does not go into details, is guided by his impressions and has a loose grasp of facts and figures, as was evident in his joint press conference with Modi, where he spoke of the US having a $100 billion trade deficit with India; the actual figure is $45.6 billion. Similarly, he spoke of hundreds of years of India's problems with Bangladesh—what he probably had in mind must be the legacy of the Islamic invasions that resulted in the creation of Pakistan.
A Remarkable Statement
It is remarkable that within less than a month of the new US administration being in power and key posts in the State Department not yet filled, India and the US could produce a substantive joint statement on the occasion of Modi's visit. The document, which has many positive features, gives precedence to US priorities on defence and trade, but this is balanced by what India seeks in terms of continuation of the established areas of cooperation in technology, innovation, space, mineral security, etc.
In the White House readout of the telephonic call the two leaders had had earlier, Trump had already made it known that balancing trade relations and India buying more defence equipment from the US were his priorities. Accordingly, unlike in previous cases with the US, as well as with other countries, the paragraph on defence takes prime place in the joint statement, and this is followed by trade. Expansion of defence sales and co-production is envisaged to strengthen interoperability (a persistent US demand), with specific mention of the Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicle and the Javelin anti-tank guided missile, both of which have undergone trials in India. The completion of six additional P-8I Maritime Patrol Aircraft is also envisaged. The US seeks to sell the F-35 jet fighter to India. Without mentioning it by name, the joint statement refers to the US announcing a review of its policy on releasing fifth-generation fighters to India (which India may not want in view of the exorbitant acquisition and maintenance costs of this aircraft) , as well as undersea systems (which India wants).
The 'ASIA' Project
Another notable element in the joint statement is the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA), a new initiative to scale industry partnerships and production in the Indo-Pacific. This might suggest some cooperative arrangements within the Quad framework. Partnerships between Indian and US companies to co-produce an advanced AI-enabled Unmanned Aerial System and co-development of active towed array systems have been announced.
India has long asked for a review of US export controls, in particular, the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which would include in-country repair and an overhaul of US-provided defence systems. It has also been decided to break new ground to support and sustain the overseas deployments of the US and Indian militaries in the Indo-Pacific, including enhanced logistics and intelligence sharing, as well as arrangements to improve force mobility for “security cooperation engagements”.
Special Focus On Cooperation
Then there's the ‘US-India COMPACT (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) for the 21st Century'—to drive transformative change across key pillars of cooperation. To further advance defence ties, this year, a new ten-year framework for the ‘US-India Major Defense Partnership in the 21st Century' will be signed.
The US and India have set a bold new goal for bilateral trade,'Mission 500', aiming to more than double total bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. They plan to negotiate the first tranche of a multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by fall of 2025, which will increase market access, reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers, and deepen supply chain integration. India has got the US to welcome in the joint statement its recent measures to lower tariffs on US products in the areas of bourbon, motorcycles, ICT (information and communication technology) products, medical devices and metals, as well as measures to enhance market access for US agricultural products and vice-versa. The Indian side also got the US to welcome ongoing investments by Indian companies worth approximately $7.35 billion, which support over 3,000 high-quality jobs. Even so, the sword of tariffs on India has not been sheathed yet as Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 1. In his joint press conference, he was quite brutally forthright on the issue of high Indian tariffs.
On Energy
Trump, with his slogan “Drill, baby, Drill” to become the world's biggest hydrocarbon power, is determined to export US oil and gas to all destinations, including to India. He wants to establish the US as a leading supplier of crude oil and petroleum products and LNG to India. New Delhi will be open to this, but the scope will depend on increased US production—which will take time—the price factor, and alternative sources available to India.
Modi and Trump have re-committed to the US-India Energy Security Partnership, including in civil nuclear energy. Both sides would wish to pursue civilian nuclear cooperation, including in advanced small modular reactors, which, it is recognised, will be facilitated by amendments to India's Atomic Energy Act and the Civil Liability for Nuclear damage Act. The hurdle in this would be US laws, which allow only construction of US nuclear reactors and not technology transfer. Which is why the joint statement, while mentioning large scale localisation, only mentions “possible technology transfer”. For India, carrying forward the iCET project developed under the Biden administration on cooperation in emerging and critical technologies was most important. This project has been re-branded as US-India TRUST ‘Transforming the Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology' initiative. As a central pillar of this programme, the U.S. and Indian private industry will develop a US.-India Roadmap on Accelerating AI Infrastructure by the end of the year. The Biden-era INDUS-X project has also been rebranded as INDUS Innovation, with the next summit slated for 2025. As part of the TRUST initiative, the two sides will build trusted and resilient supply chains, including for semiconductors, critical minerals, advanced materials and pharmaceuticals.
Critical Minerals
India and the US will accelerate collaboration in research and development and promote investment across the entire critical mineral value chain, through the Mineral Security Partnership as well, established during the Biden administration. To this end, the launch of the Strategic Mineral Recovery initiative, a new US-India programme to recover and process critical minerals (including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths) from heavy industries like aluminum, coal mining and oil and gas, was announced.
The year 2025 is also slated to be a pioneering one for US-India civil space cooperation, with plans for a NASA-ISRO effort to bring the first Indian astronaut to the International Space Station (ISS), and early launch of the joint ‘NISAR' mission, the first of its kind to systematically map changes to the Earth's surface using dual radars.
The paragraph on the Indo-Pacific region and the Quad is somewhat perfunctory. The joint statement avoids any direct references to the China threat. However, ahead of hosting Trump in New Delhi for the Quad leaders' summit, Modi and Trump will activate new Quad initiatives on shared airlift capacity to support civilian response to natural disasters and, significantly, maritime patrols to improve interoperability. In the joint statement, the US has appreciated India's role as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region.
The IMEC Corridor
Significantly, the two leaders also want to push forward the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor and the I2U2 Group within the next six months and will announce new initiatives in 2025. This is ambitious, given the fallout of the Gaza conflict on Israel's position in the Arab world. The intention to build new plurilateral anchor partnerships in the Western Indian Ocean, Middle East, and Indo-Pacific in defence, technology, energy and critical minerals, which Modi and Trump will expect to announce by fall of 2025, is intriguing in so far as the Indo-Pacific is concerned, as the plurilateral anchor partnership already exists there in the form of the Quad. On the ongoing controversy in the US about H1B visas, India has highlighted in the joint statement some positive aspects of people-to-people ties, noting that the more than 3-lakh-strong Indian student community contributes over $8 billion annually to the US economy. The joint statement recognises that the talent flow and movement of students, researchers and employees has mutually benefited both countries.
Surprisingly, given the mood in the US, both leaders have emphasised that the evolution of the world into a global workplace calls for putting in place innovative, mutually advantageous and secure mobility frameworks. In this regard, the leaders committed to streamlining avenues for legal mobility of students and professionals, while also aggressively addressing illegal immigration and human trafficking. The reference, in this context, to other elements who threaten public and diplomatic safety and security, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both nations could be seen as an indirect reference to Khalistani groups.
Notably, the joint statement contains no reference to the Ukraine conflict or that in Gaza, though on Ukraine, Modi, in the joint press conference, supported Trump's moved to end the conflict.
All in all, Modi's visit has been productive beyond expectations.
(Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, and Deputy Chief Of Mission in Washington.)