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On Sunday, January 19, TikTok, the wildly popular video-sharing app that has become a cultural phenomenon in the US, could vanish into thin air—unless the Supreme Court orders on Friday to delay the hammer of a law passed last April by Congress with an overwhelming bipartisan majority.
Washington's legal, media and political circles are brimming with suspense as they await the judiciary's final word, likely to come on Friday. Speculation is rife. Will the justices uphold the law to ban TikTok, snatching it from the hands of its 170 million American users? Or will they put the ball into Donald Trump's court, who returns to the Oval Office on Monday?
The meteoric rise of TikTok is impressive indeed. Young people across the world adore the app as it has redefined the global social media landscape. TikTok, unlike its competitors, is unique in terms of a blend of short-form videos and intuitive algorithms. These qualities propelled it to unparalleled heights, captivating billions worldwide. Yet, this dizzying success has come with its share of problems. In the US, the platform has become a lightning rod for controversy, with mounting concerns over data privacy and national security sparking fierce debates. Now, there is the very real prospect of a ban, which, once implemented, will have ripple effects across the world.
The Data Threat
But first, let's take a look at the arguments and counterarguments for TikTok. The US government argues that Congress is acting on pressing national security concerns. They have painted TikTok as a wolf in sheep's clothing, claiming that ByteDance, its parent company, is a puppet of the Chinese government, ready to hand over reams of sensitive data at Beijing's command. They have called TikTok a “grave threat” to US national security, a digital Trojan horse smuggling Chinese influence into American smartphones.
Even though the claims are not backed by hard evidence, the fears are genuine. ByteDance operates under China's ominous national security laws, which compel organisations to cooperate with intelligence agencies. The logic is simple: data is power, and TikTok's ocean of user data could become a goldmine for China's global ambitions. Or at least that is what the US establishment's fear is.
However, TikTok isn't going down without a fight. Its defenders, alongside furious content creators, argue that the ban is an assault on the First Amendment. Shutting down the platform, they claim, stifles free speech and undermines the right of 170 million Americans to express themselves online.
Trump's Change Of Heart?
Ironically, though, Donald Trump, the same man who tried to ban TikTok in 2020, has now become its unlikely saviour, albeit for the short term. The incoming president has urged the Supreme Court to delay the ban. Why? Perhaps because he wants the glory of deciding TikTok's future, casting himself as the ultimate dealmaker. Forget Biden's administration or Congress, in Trump's world, only he can untangle the knot of national security and free speech wrapped around TikTok. It is believed that two billionaires who have already met Trump have plans in motion to buy TikTok, which will be brokered by Trump after he assumes office on Monday
For the first time in American tech history, the US has passed a law targeting a major Chinese tech giant. If the ban kicks in on Sunday, what lies ahead for the app and its millions of users?
Hints From The Indian Ban
The Indian ban on TikTok, instituted in 2020, offers a glimpse and serves as a cautionary tale. At the time, the app had amassed a staggering 200 million users in India—its largest global audience. TikTok was riding high, revolutionising digital content creation with an algorithm that empowered rural creators to achieve fame unimaginable on other platforms. For the first time, content creation felt truly democratic.
TikTok holds a similar cultural power in the US. Niche communities thrive on the platform and countless small creators and businesses depend on the app for visibility and even livelihood. But, just as in India, American users are already beginning to adapt to life without TikTok. Over the past year, as whispers of a ban grew louder, many creators adopted a fallback strategy—duplicating their efforts on rival platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts.
The migration has gained momentum. Recent reports reveal that droves of TikTok users, dubbing themselves "TikTok refugees", have jumped ship to another Chinese app, RedNote. This week, RedNote surged to become the most downloaded app on Apple's US app Store.
India's post-TikTok story suggests the void won't last long. Instagram and YouTube swiftly stepped in with Reels and Shorts, launched within months of the TikTok ban. Other startup platforms tried to compete, but they were no match for these entrenched tech titans. The same story could play out in the US, where existing giants are already positioning themselves to seize the opportunity.
The TikTok ban could also be just the beginning. India didn't stop at TikTok; it axed hundreds of Chinese apps in one sweeping move. The new US law lays the groundwork for similar actions, setting a precedent to target other Chinese apps under the guise of national security and privacy concerns. The ripple effect could redraw the lines of global tech dominance, leaving Chinese tech firms locked out of Western markets.
A Ban Could Be Devastating
TikTok's revenue machine is formidable. In 2023 alone, it pulled in $16.1 billion from advertising. The US has been a linchpin in this success, serving as one of its most lucrative markets. A ban would strike a devastating blow, slashing ad revenue and threatening ByteDance's global profitability.
Also, with 1.6 billion users worldwide, TikTok ranks as the fifth-largest tech platform, trailing only giants like Facebook, which boasts three billion users as of 2023. The app's dominance extends across Europe, Indonesia and Brazil, but a US ban could have cascading effects. Pressure might mount on Europe to follow suit, further jeopardising ByteDance's global growth trajectory and cementing the app's status as a geopolitical battleground
A Larger Anti-China Campaign
Those who observe the US foreign policy closely would know that the US ban on TikTok is more than just a crackdown on a social media app—it's a calculated move in Washington's broader strategy to curb China's meteoric rise to the top of the global economic hierarchy. This pushback isn't about a single platform; it's a battle for technological and economic dominance in the 21st century.
TikTok isn't the first Chinese tech titan to face the heat. Huawei, once a juggernaut in 5G infrastructure, was hit hard by US-led sanctions and bans. As of January 2025, several countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, the UK, and EU countries, joined the US in restricting Huawei's operations, citing national security fears and allegations of espionage ties to Beijing. The message was clear: Chinese technology with potential links to the Communist Party would not be trusted in the West.
Huawei Flashbacks
While Huawei's revenue took a hit in international markets, the company rebounded strongly at home, leveraging its dominance in China to sustain operations. US sanctions curtailed Huawei's access to critical components, limiting its production of advanced smartphones and network gear. Yet, in a remarkable show of resilience, last year Huawei unveiled a cutting-edge smartphone powered by 7nm chips—a move that blindsided Washington and demonstrated the company's ability to innovate under pressure.
Adapting to the global crackdown, Huawei diversified aggressively, pivoting to cloud services, IoT, and enterprise solutions. Despite the bruises, the company remains a formidable player in the tech world. The US-China standoff has evolved into a "tech war", marking a new phase in their geopolitical rivalry.
The seeds of this conflict were sown during President Trump's first term, when a bruising trade war dominated headlines. Tariffs on Chinese imports soared, sanctions were slapped on Chinese firms and Beijing's economic momentum faltered. Trump's unrelenting economic offensive left scars, but it was under President Biden that Washington turned the trade war into an all-out technology war.
Biden retained Trump-era tariffs totalling $360 billion and escalated the action further. He signed the legislation to ban TikTok, imposed sweeping export controls on advanced technologies, and restricted US investments in critical sectors tied to China's military ambitions. Tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, semiconductors and metals skyrocketed, while state-level measures barred public pension funds from investing in Chinese state-linked equities
A Ban May Have A Cascading Effect
Unlike India, which faced no significant backlash after banning TikTok due to its negligible tech footprint in China, the US is deeply entwined with Chinese markets. A TikTok ban could ignite a new round of retaliatory measures from Beijing, threatening sectors far beyond technology. Trade, manufacturing and finance could all become collateral damages in this intensifying standoff.
The US strategy to contain China goes back to Barack Obama's presidency, when Beijing's rapid economic ascent started to unsettle Washington. However, the Biden administration has arguably been the most aggressive yet, turning the US-China rivalry into a defining feature of global geopolitics. The TikTok ban is just the latest salvo in a broader campaign.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)