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You don't want to fall into the trap of romanticising the East as Orientalists, steeped in Christianity and its binaries of good and evil, have done over the last 200 years. But a well-known Chinese invocation comes to mind as one absorbs the beginnings of the second Trump presidency: may you live in interesting times. All times are interesting for those living through them; our generation is no different. However, one may allow oneself the indulgence that the post-Trump II world would be more interesting than, say, the post–World War II years.
Partly, this is because Trump is upending much of the global institutional structure the US primarily created post–World War II: the United Nations and its many offshoots, which serve as global watchdogs and regulators on socio-economic issues, and the Bretton Woods institutions, which underpin global trade and finance. Just as importantly, the US commitment to lowering tariffs to increase market access for poorer countries in wealthier markets is also in question.
A Much Stronger China
More significantly, a tectonic shift has been underway as China awakens, bringing with it the disruptions Napoleon once apprehended. China is not a status quo power—indeed, no emerging superpower is when there is only one other around. But China also represents a culture, an imagination, and therefore a morality and civilisational view that the Christian West, steeped in notions of Right and Wrong and One Truth, struggles to comprehend.
How will Trump II handle a China that is much stronger than it was eight years ago? Not only has China advanced technologically in key strategic sectors despite sanctions introduced by Trump and expanded by Biden, but it has also gained adherents to its alternative worldview—one that debunks Western-style democracy and prioritises order, stability, and material progress.
Tough Against Immigrants And Deep State
Trump returned to power because he was seen as more competent in handling the economy, reducing prices, cracking down on illegal immigration, and restoring faith in government by dismantling and refashioning it. His campaign made explicit promises to his MAGA base: mass deportations of the “15–20 million” undocumented immigrants, dismantling the “Deep State” that “stole” the 2020 election and pursued “illegal prosecutions” against him, seeking vengeance against those who opposed him, and rewarding loyalty as never before in a constitutional democracy.
In his inaugural address and his first days in office, he has done exactly as he promised, disappointing neither his loyalists nor his critics. His speech invoked the imperial America of the late 19th century when it had expanded its territory—this time, with real estate targets including Panama and Greenland. On his first day in the Oval Office, he signed 26 executive orders (EO), the most ever by a president, addressing a wide swath of campaign commitments. Though many of these EOs face legal and legislative hurdles, the rapid pace has continued, reshaping the US government to align with the MAGA worldview both domestically and internationally. The intent was to shock and awe—to announce to the world that there was a new Big Chief in Washington.
Two Sticky Decisions
Two decisions have particularly inflamed his critics: the launch of the cryptocurrency World Liberty Financial and the meme coin TRUMP on the eve of the inauguration, along with President Trump's blanket pardon of the perpetrators of the January 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol. Critics argue that because cryptocurrencies allow for anonymous transactions, Liberty provides a pathway to those seeking to strike deals with the transactional president—offering financial gratifications for favourable policy tweaks without anyone being the wiser. The meme coin TRUMP and Liberty, in this view, serve as emblematic tools of a presidency that blends governance with personal financial gain.
The launch inevitably became controversial when it was erroneously reported that the Trump family had made $500 million through the sale of crypto “tokens”. In reality, TRUMP quickly gained a market capitalisation of $13 billion, and the Trump Organization earned $7 million in “liquidity fees”. Critics argue this is only the beginning; by the time Trump leaves office, his target, they claim, is to swell the family fortune by $5 billion.
Blatant Pardons
Trump's pardon of the January 6 rioters, including those convicted of assaulting police officers, continues to enrage his critics. Even The Wall Street Journal, otherwise largely supportive of Trump editorially, was critical, citing its own poll that found that nearly six in 10 Americans opposed pardoning the convicts. The pardon was also unexpected—one, because Trump had stated the pardons would go through a vetting process, and two, because Vice President J.D. Vance had publicly assured everyone before the inauguration that convicted individuals would not be pardoned. Reportedly, as the staff laboured through the vetting process, an impatient Trump declared, “This is taking too long, eff it, I will pardon the whole lot and also show J.D. who is boss.”
At the opposite end of the spectrum is the case of General Mark Milley, retired Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. During his campaign, Trump suggested Milley had committed treason and should be put to death. Milley was pardoned by Biden to prevent a court-martial, but he now faces an inquiry for “insubordination” while serving as Joint Chiefs Of Staff (JCS) under Trump. The objective: humiliate Milley by “demoting” him in retirement. Milley had reassured his Chinese counterpart post-Capitol insurrection that Trump was not planning an attack on China in his efforts to undo the 2020 election results. He also publicly supported a peaceful transition of power.
Trump has frequently referenced Biden's pardons of family and friends, as well as his political opponents. “Biden pardoned his entire family even as I was making my inaugural speech,” Trump quipped. His continued focus on Biden is evident in an executive order directing federal agencies to investigate whether the Biden administration committed illegal acts to curb freedom of speech and to take “remedial measures” if proof is found. Ominously, Trump said gleefully on Fox News that Biden had not pardoned himself.
Trump's executive order delaying the ban on TikTok was classic Trump. The ban, written into law by an overwhelming majority in the House and upheld by the US Supreme Court, was postponed by 75 days under the guise of “national security” considerations. However, in typical Trump fashion, he admitted publicly that the real reason was TikTok's role in helping him win the election. The platform had significantly influenced young voters to switch their votes to Trump.
The Deportation Spree
The immigration crackdown was among the most significant executive orders and the campaign promise implemented most swiftly. Declaring a national emergency at the border, Trump ramped up deportations of illegal immigrants, involved the military in anti-immigration measures and lifted immunity protections for religious places that had become major sanctuaries.
As promised, Trump rescinded birthright citizenship, despite its firm foundation in the US Constitution through the 14th Amendment and its repeated affirmation in Supreme Court rulings. The executive order denies citizenship not only to children of illegal immigrants but also to those born to parents on work or student visas. Trump's hardline stance on immigration is certain to dominate headlines across many countries, including India, for the foreseeable future.
Trump also declared a national emergency on energy, a move that even The Wall Street Journal found perplexing. His “drill, baby, drill” mantra underpins an aggressive push for fossil fuel exploitation, ostensibly aimed at lowering retail prices by reducing natural gas costs. Notably, this was Trump's only decision explicitly targeting prices, despite soaring everyday costs being the primary reason for Biden's election loss.
Trump Actions May Impact Republican Base
The intended curbs on renewable energy and the rollback of incentives for electric cars made little sense—even to corporate America, now busy grovelling before Trump. For one, the US pumped more fuel last year than ever before, becoming a net exporter. Second, as Tom Friedman pointed out, the largest producers of wind and solar energy in the US are five Republican-led states, and the greatest potential for these renewable sources lies in the vast plains of the US heartland—MAGA strongholds. Third, even if one is a climate change-sceptic, as much of the MAGA world is, it is intuitive that any major country's energy policy must be an "AND" strategy, not an "OR" strategy.
Predictably, Trump sent the 2.28 million-strong federal bureaucracy into a spin with a flurry of executive orders, including a blanket freeze on DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) initiatives and an exhortation to report employees still pursuing DEI efforts. He also imposed a blanket ban on the disbursement of federal aid, including foreign aid—later rescinded and modified—and introduced an enticement for federal employees to resign en masse in exchange for eight months of salary. This was framed as a purely “voluntary” offer, though with the implicit threat that jobs would not be guaranteed after the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) completed its review. Oddly enough, the DOGE notification itself was modest in its stated objectives: to harness the full power of digital technology to make government more efficient and effective, echoing the Department of Digital Services established under Obama with the same goals.
Trump has championed higher tariffs since the 1980s, but apart from a threatened 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada starting February 1, no major action has been taken against China—let alone a blanket tariff on all nations, as signalled in his campaign. Even Trump's own government colleagues and ideologues struggle to counter the primary argument against tariffs: that they would raise domestic prices. Moreover, the rest of the world has already adjusted to a global economy where the US holds a diminishing share of international trade, meaning punitive tariffs would likely hurt the US more than its trading partners in the long run.
The Spectre Of DeepSeek
Unsurprisingly, the biggest shock to the US came not from Washington but from a Chinese company, DeepSeek. The Hangzhou-based firm unveiled AI-powered products rivalling ChatGPT and similar offerings at a fraction of the cost—not by using Nvidia's state-of-the-art chips but by employing less powerful, significantly cheaper alternatives. This development has been aptly labelled another “Sputnik moment” for the US. As one CEO put it: “It's like you buy a $10 million property only to find that your neighbour got a similar one for $200,000.”
Trump's only public comment on DeepSeek was to call it a “wake-up call” for US industry. However, behind the scenes, expect the sharpest minds in his camp to be huddling with Elon Musk and other tech moguls to assess the full impact of DeepSeek—and to strategise how to maintain US dominance in the most critical emerging technology. If there's one endorsement Trump values above all, it's the stock market. And he surely wasn't amused that DeepSeek wiped $1 trillion off Wall Street's market capitalisation. China is the five-letter word that will haunt Trump's second term.
(Ajay Kumar is a senior journalist. He is the former Managing Editor, Business Standard, and former Executive Editor, Economic Times.)