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Donald Trump has spent only a month in his second term as the US President. However, he has disrupted the international order, weakened the Western alliance and created a sense of insecurity and uncertainty among its members, surprising even some of his supporters.
There has been a paradigm shift in US foreign policy under Trump. He is now closer to Moscow than Washington's traditional allies. He has embraced the Kremlin's narrative on Ukraine and has sidelined US allies.
Although senior members of the Trump administration have denied that the US has abandoned Kyiv and ignored its European allies, Trump himself has not made any serious attempts to pacify Ukrainians and Europeans.
Actions Speak Louder
His closeness to Russia has been on display since he talked for 90 minutes on the phone with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, in which they agreed to start negotiations to end the Ukraine war, which will mark its third anniversary on Monday.
Trump did speak to Zelenskyy soon after that call with Putin, but a nervous Ukrainian President warned that excluding his country from the talks would be “very dangerous”. Events after that only made Ukrainians feels sidelined.
Trump's Vice President, JD Vance, met European leaders in Munich two days later. But his comment that Europe will not be included in the peace talks only helped fuelled the speculation that they were being left out of the future of Ukraine, which is closer to their homes and in which they have invested a lot of money and effort since the Russian invasion.
Vance's meeting with Zelenskyy did not go well either as the Ukrainian leader refused to give access to the country's vast reserves of critical minerals unless he was given security guarantees. That angered Washington.
Ending the Russia-Ukraine war was Trump's major campaign promise. But hardly anyone expected him to brazenly take Russia's side and even blame Ukraine for the conflict, which he did.
Last Tuesday, a US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio met the Russian delegation headed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Saudi Arabia, to discuss peace. Ukraine was not invited. Putin—who had been shunned by the US and its allies since the invasion of Ukraine—was delighted.
Trump-Zelenskyy Row
A frustrated Zelenskyy dismissed the Riyadh talks as worthless. Trump did not like those comments and called the Ukraine President a dictator, even accusing him of starting the war.
Zelenskyy said the US President was living in a Russian-made “disinformation space”. This infuriated Trump, who does not take kindly to any criticism. He described Zelenskyy as “a modestly successful comedian” who “talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion, to go into a War that couldn't be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and ‘TRUMP,' will never be able to settle.”
Trump's behaviour towards Zelenskyy is in stark contrast to Biden's, who had backed Ukraine against Russia with all the possible military and financial aid. President Biden travelled to Ukraine many times since the Russian invasion in February 2022 to display his administration's full support. He also promised NATO membership to Ukraine at a future date.
Russia was severely punished for invading Ukraine. The US joined hands with its allies to isolate Moscow. Russia faced tough sanctions and its assets in the West were seized. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. There were even plans to put Putin and his close allies on Nuremberg-style trials.
Ukraine's Distant Dream
Until a year ago, Ukraine's leader was talking about even liberating all its territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, with the help of Western military equipment. Ukraine even succeeded in occupying the Russian territory of Kursk, which it had thought would be used as a bargaining chip during negotiations with Moscow.
But all that now looks like a distant dream. With Trump back in the White House, Ukraine fears that Russia will be allowed to keep all the occupied territory as part of the deal to end the war. Kyiv is now likely to be denied NATO membership. That could be a promise to Russia to end the war.
The US under Trump has now even opposed calling Russia an aggressor in a G-7 statement being prepared to mark the third anniversary of the war. The US team removed the phrase from the first draft, which was prepared by Canada, the current holder of the group's presidency.
Europeans Are Nervous Too
It is not just Ukraine, America's European allies are also now nervous about the intent of Trump. Since the Second World War, they enjoyed the US security umbrella under NATO.
But now they are unsure if the US under Trump will honour Article 5 of the NATO, which is triggered when a member state comes under attack. It implies that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
There is even fear in Europe that Donald Trump may sign a deal with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin that will lead to the withdrawal of US forces from Baltic states and effectively kill the NATO alliance.
That could be similar to the non-aggression treaty signed by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany on August 23, 1939, sending shockwaves to other European countries and prompting Hitler and Stalin to annex neighbouring countries. It is another matter that Hitler invaded the Soviet Union two years later, putting an end to the treaty.
European members of NATO may call themselves major powers, but they can't match Russia's military might without US support. Even after losing more than a hundred thousand men and lots of military equipment in the Ukraine conflict, Moscow remains a strong power, mainly because of its nuclear arsenal.
So Why Has Trump Changed The Narrative?
Trump has always been an admirer of strongmen like Putin. Even during his first term, he developed a rapport with him. He also dislikes Zelenskyy, whom he sees as more of a roadblock in ending the Ukraine conflict.
As a former businessman, Trump sees things from the perspective of profitable deals. Western sanctions have hit Russia, but American companies have also suffered business losses, running into billions of dollars. He would like to reverse that.
And despite Ukraine's resistance, Trump believes Zelenskyy will have to give access to critical minerals in return for any future US support. Some in the Trump administration suggest Kyiv should provide Americans with those minerals in return for the US military and financial aid already received by Ukraine.
Trump has blamed European leaders for not doing enough to end the Ukraine war. He has also complained for a long time that Europe has lived off the US for too long and it must pay for its security. Europeans have increased their defence budgets but not enough to survive without US support.
European Plan
In the face of changing US policy under Trump, European leaders are working on a plan to guard against a Russian attack. This involves a proposal to deploy tens of thousands of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. The proposal has the support of Britain and France and is in response to Zelenskyy's request of 100,000 troops.
But the idea doesn't have wider support in Europe. Germany, another big power in the continent, has already called it premature. The proposal has been dismissed by Russia, which currently has about 600,000 troops in Ukraine.
But even Britain and France, with much smaller armies than Russia, can't send troops to Ukraine without some backup from the United States. And that looks unlikely, for now.
Trump's Ukraine envoy, General Keith Kellogg, who visited Kyiv and met Zelenskyy on Thursday, said all options must be open to deal with the outcome of peace talks. But he knows that any decision to provide any US military cover will be made by Trump who looks less inclined to do that.
(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the Associated Press and BBC News based in London.)