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The battle to woo the middle class has heated up in poll-bound Delhi. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), in its bid to win over this section of voters, has listed seven demands for the Centre to consider in the upcoming Budget: increase the education budget from 2% to 10%; cap private schools fees and provide subsidies and scholarships for higher education; hike the health budget to 10% and remove health insurance tax; raise the income tax exemption limit from Rs 7 lakh to Rs 10 lakh; abolish GST on essential items; frame comprehensive retirement plans for senior citizens and provide them with free treatment; and, restore the discount given to senior citizens in railways (a popular provision, now abandoned).
A Middle Class Manifesto
Traditionally, the middle class in India has been a loyal supporter of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nationally. In Delhi, however, while it backs the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, in state elections, it tends to side with the AAP. However, this time around, it won't be surprising if the BJP manages to make a dent in the AAP's middle-class vote bank, thanks to the alleged liquor scam and the ‘Sheesh Mahal' controversy. The AAP's budget demands should be seen in this light—as pre-emptive measures to win over the middle class, reeling under high inflation and taxes. It's a win-win for the party either way: if these demands are eventually reflected in the Union Budget, it will give the party a chance to claim credit, and in case that doesn't happen, it gets a stick to beat the BJP with. “Some poll promises are made for the underprivileged classes, and some for a few industrialists. On the grounds of caste and religion, other parties have created a vote bank. And they need donations from industrialists, so they are the note bank. Between this vote bank and note bank, a large section is sandwiched. This is India's middle class,” AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal said on Wednesday.
To be sure, the AAP has already implemented in Delhi the first and third of its list of demands. In 2023-24, the spending on education in the capital was 24.3%, as against an average of 14.7% in other states; the health spending in the same year was 13.8%, significantly more than India's state average of 6.2%.
Shifting Priorities
The middle class accounts for 45% of Delhi's population, higher than the national average of 31%. The state's per capita income is the highest in the country and twice the national average. The middle class was one of the first backers of the AAP and its anti-corruption campaign. According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies' (CSDS) post-poll data, more than half (53%) of the voters from this section backed the AAP in 2020, while 39% voted for the BJP. In contrast, in the 2024 general election, 50% of the middle class backed the BJP, while 32% voted for the AAP (a gain of 11 percentage points for the BJP since the 2020 state polls, and a loss of 21 percentage points for the AAP). Meanwhile, the Congress, which was in alliance with the AAP in this election, got 16% of middle-class votes. This means that almost a quarter of middle-class voters in Delhi keep swinging between the BJP, the Congress and the AAP. As much as 6% of the AAP's 15% lead over the BJP in 2020 could be attributed to the middle class.
In the assembly election due next month, AAP hopes that its claims of providing the “cheapest” electricity, free water and mohalla clinics will see it through. It has also been targeting the BJP for doing “lip service” to the middle class's needs. On the other hand, the BJP has been attacking the very core of AAP's ‘clean' image by playing up the two scandals that have rocked the party in the state.
Growing Discontent
It's not going to be easy for the AAP. To win this time, it will have to lure back around 10-11% of middle-class voters who had swung towards the BJP in last year's Lok Sabha elections. Its middle-class manifesto is an attempt not just to attack the BJP but also to position itself as a national party representing India's middle class. Already, a large section of the population has been clamouring for lower taxes. Even in the national polls, the BJP's share of middle-class support shrunk by 3 percentage points compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha election, while the Congress's rose marginally. Before every Budget, there are rumblings about how the middle class has been milked by successive governments. A high inflation rate of 5.7% in the last five years coupled with slow wage growth across sectors has added to the discontent.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)