Fall of Assad: How an Alawite family ruled a Sunni nation for decades

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The Assads have ruled Syria for over half a century. Today, rebel forces have breached their seat of power Damascus, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee and effectively ending the family's rule over Syria.


For over five decades, this Alawite dynasty has held sway over a predominantly Sunni nation. This long rule, initiated by Hafez al-Assad in 1970, now stares at an abrupt end. 

Hafez al-Assad: Architect Of Modern Syria

Hafez al-Assad rose to power in a coup on November 13, 1970, marking the beginning of a new era in Syria. At the time, the country was characterised by political instability, with a series of coups dominating its post-independence history. Hafez, a member of the Alawite minority, built his power base as commander of the Syrian Air Force and minister of defence. By the time he seized control, he had cultivated a loyal network within the military and the Ba'ath Party. 

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Hafez's strategy relied on divide-and-rule tactics, exploiting Syria's ethnic, religious, and political divisions. His system meant that he became the linchpin holding the state together. The result was a weak institutional structure that left his successors with a brittle foundation.


To fortify his regime, Hafez elevated the Alawite minority, traditionally a marginalised group, to positions of power in the military and government. At the same time, he manipulated Syria's sectarian and tribal fault lines to neutralize potential threats, ensuring that no single group could challenge his authority.


Following Syria's independence in 1946, the Alawite community emerged as a significant force in two key areas: political movements and the armed forces. This shift marked a departure from their historically marginalised status, as the Alawites began to assert influence within Syria's evolving power structures.


The Alawite minority, which makes up roughly 12-15 per cent of Syria's pre-war population, has been the regime's primary base of support. This loyalty stems in part from the community's historical marginalisation and the opportunities afforded to them under the Assads, particularly in the military and security services.

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Alawites, while not doctrinally Shia, venerate Ali ibn Abi Talib, a figure central to Shia Islam. 


The Baath Party, established in 1947,  sought to unite Arab nationalism, socialism, secularism, and anti-imperialism. For many Alawites, the Baath Party's secular and inclusive ideals offered a more appealing alternative to the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni Islamist organisation founded in Egypt that had garnered a considerable following in Syria.

A Dynasty By Design

Hafez al-Assad intended to pass his legacy to his eldest son, Bassel, who was groomed for leadership. However, Bassel's untimely death in a car accident in 1994 forced Hafez to turn to his second son, Bashar, a relatively inexperienced ophthalmologist. When Hafez died in 2000, Bashar assumed the presidency, confirmed in office by a referendum that secured 97 per cent of the vote - a predictable outcome.


Bashar's ascent was initially met with optimism. Many Syrians and foreign observers hoped he would bring reforms and openness to a system long stifled by authoritarian rule. However, those hopes quickly dissipated. Bashar inherited not only his father's system but also his father's inner circle, composed of ageing revolutionary leaders who had controlled key state institutions since the 1970s.

Bashar's Consolidation Of Power

Bashar's early years in power were marked by attempts to replace his father's allies with his own confidants, most of whom belonged to Syria's urban elite. Unlike their predecessors, Bashar's inner circle had no grassroots connections, isolating the regime from Syria's rural population.


The weakening of state institutions under Bashar coincided with the rise of a narrow clique of elites centred around his family. Figures such as his brother Maher, his sister Bushra, and her husband Asef Shawkat played key roles in the regime's security and military apparatus. Economic power was concentrated in the hands of regime cronies, most notably Rami Makhlouf, Bashar's cousin, who reportedly controlled more than 60 per cent of Syria's economy.

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Hafez al-Assad's rule was marked by brutal repression, most infamously in 1982 when the Syrian military crushed an armed uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood in the city of Hama. Estimates of the death count range from 10,000 to 40,000, making it one of the most violent crackdowns in modern Middle Eastern history.


This pattern of repression continued under Bashar, culminating in the 2011 uprising that marked Syria's entry into the wave of Arab Spring protests. What began as peaceful demonstrations in Deraa escalated into a full-scale civil war after the regime responded with violent crackdowns. The conflict has since claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions.


Bashar's tenure has been marked by economic mismanagement and growing inequality. While GDP per capita doubled between 2000 and 2010, the benefits were concentrated among a small elite. Widespread poverty, unemployment, and corruption exacerbated public discontent. A severe drought in the late 2000s, compounded by poor resource management, forced hundreds of thousands of rural Syrians into urban areas.


The Assad regime's survival strategy has been rooted in its "shadow state" model, where real power resides outside formal institutions. This system, designed to be coup-proof, relies on overlapping security agencies, patronage networks, and a culture of mutual surveillance. While effective in maintaining control, it has rendered Syria's governance opaque and unaccountable.


Despite the façade of elections and constitutional reforms, Syria remained a de facto dictatorship.

2011 And Beyond 

Over thirteen years after the Syrian uprising began with hopeful cries for reform, the civil war remains an unresolved catastrophe. Born from the Arab Spring, Syria's descent into chaos was marked by the regime's violent crackdown on protests that spread from Daraa in 2011. 


Those early demonstrations, driven by demands for modest reforms, escalated into an all-out civil war, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced.  In 2024, after a brief thaw, a renewed surge in violence thrust the conflict back into global focus.


Rebel forces, led by a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched an unprecedented offensive, directly challenging the regime for the first time in years. HTS, an Islamist faction once linked to al-Qaida, has attempted to shed its extremist image under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, yet it remains designated a terrorist organisation by the United Nations and the United States.


The rebels' rapid march and occupation of key cities eventually ended with them taking control of Damascus and prompting the al-Assads to flee.