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Many may be tempted to write the Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) obituary today, but that may be both hasty and tragic. The AAP's defeat in Delhi is basically a journey from Dreamland to Crashland. Much before the results were out, I had argued that this was the most opportune time for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win the election. The results of the Delhi assembly elections are shocking for both AAP and Arvind Kejriwal, but it's they who must take the blame for the rout, and gracefully accept their mistakes.
Kejriwal had emerged on the national scene as a radical revolutionary who promised to change the politics of the country. Instead, it was politics that changed Kejriwal. Twelve years in power had turned him into yet another politician who lost all his moral lustre and charisma. Nothing could be more tragic than the defeat of Kejriwal from his own seat, the New Delhi constituency. It's a lesson for all politicians who think they are bigger than the party and the collective wisdom of the people.
Five things went against the AAP in this election.
1. Same Old, Same Old
First, the AAP's biggest undoing was that it was no longer seen as a party with a difference. Moral capital used to be its unique asset, something that few parties in contemporary politics could claim. But over time, the AAP sacrificed its core values; it became vulnerable as its most loyal supporters lost support in both the party and its leader.
A similar thing had happened with the BJP in 1984, when it could win only two seats in the national election. Yes, Indira Gandhi's assassination was one of the reasons for the BJP's dismal performance, but it was also a fact that the BJP had abandoned its core ideological value of Hindutva and had been trying to be secular. True, the AAP is not an ideological party, but it had a certain moral virtue and responsibility. It was this moral image that had helped it win landslide mandates in both 2015 and 2020 assembly elections.
2. Losing The Moral Edge
Second, serious corruption charges dented Kejriwal's image. The alleged liquor scam turned out to be an Albatross around his neck. It landed him in jail, along with his colleagues Manish Sisodia, Sanjay Singh and others. However, it was the ‘Sheesh Mahal' controversy that proved to be the final straw. The voters could not believe that a leader who criticised every politician for their wealth and fancy bungalows had ironically built a plush house for himself worth crores. The leaked images of his renovated house did more damage to Kejriwal's personal image than the liquor scam. He did realise this, and attempted some damage control by resigning from office and leaving the chief minister's bungalow for a much more modest accommodation. But the deed was done. The middle class, which had been the biggest pillar of the AAP saga in the national capital, had already been disillusioned, and ended up deserting the AAP.
3. The Policy Paralysis
Thirdly, the non-performance of the AAP government in its third term from 2020 to 2025 contributed to its rout. In its first full term, the AAP government was seen to be delivering on its promises. Other than the provision of free electricity and water, schools in Delhi were turned into better centres for education, a step that brought global appreciation for the government. The introduction of Mohalla clinics was also an excellent step to improve primary healthcare. It became a huge hit among large sections of society that could not afford costly medical care at private facilities.
In the last term, however, the AAP government suffered from policy and administrative paralysis. It was seen as constantly wrangling with the Lieutenant Governor for power. The tussle between the Centre and the AAP government brought governance in the city to a standstill. Broken roads and open sewer lines were for everyone to see.
4. When Theatrics Don't Pay Off
Fourthly, 10 years is a long time for anti-incumbency to set in against any government. Even the Modi government at the Centre could not avoid the repercussions of anti-incumbency in the 2024 parliamentary elections. Despite the party's expectations that it would get more than 400 seats along with its allies, it could not get a majority in the Lok Sabha polls and had to rely on smaller parties to form a government. The AAP government was no exception. Its failure was that instead of trying to arrest and address the disillusionment of its voters, it indulged in theatrics.
5. Volunteers Were Tired
Finally, in previous elections, the AAP's biggest asset was its selfless volunteer force. However, through these years, it did not pay attention to creating a party structure across the national capital. In contrast, the BJP has always had the advantage of having a robust organisation. Kejriwal, by nature, does not believe in that. In the last 10 years, many volunteers felt ignored and exploited. Slowly but steadily, they were disheartened and disillusioned. Most of them either left the party and went back to their usual lives, or, they joined other parties. In this election, the AAP had to rely on paid workers.
Even so, it might be too early to be writing an obituary for the AAP. The AAP has lost almost 10% votes compared to its tally in the 2020 assembly elections. But it still commands almost 43% votes. It still controls the capital's municipal body. In Punjab, it has a government with more than 90 MLAs, and has also made its presence felt in Gujarat and Goa. And it still holds the status of a national party.
Kejriwal's obituary has been written often in the past, but every time, he has risen from the ashes like a phoenix. The latest crisis is unlike any other though. It is existential. It will take deeper introspection and great courage to go back to the old drawing board if the AAP and its boss, Kejriwal, want to regain the confidence of those who sided with him for 10 long years.
(Ashutosh is the author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)