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Turbulence in Bangladesh now seems to be the rule rather than the exception. Protests by multiple groups are now almost a daily issue, including not just students of various universities but also madrassa teachers and the general public. Meanwhile, the ‘students' of the Anti-Discrimination Movement are criticising the interim government, indicating that Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and his men may be increasingly isolated even as they use every reason in the book to delay elections. As Yunus and party try to overturn all the policies of Sheikh Hasina, particularly with regards to India, the question that has to be asked is whether a direction taken by an unelected government can be sustainable or not.
Pakistan Wades In
Entirely unexpectedly, Pakistan has chosen to wade into this chaos, fishing in troubled waters for possible gains. Immediately after the fall of the Hasina government, Syed Ahmed Maroof, the High Commissioner of Pakistan, met Yunus and held meetings with officials, including fisheries advisor Farida Akhter, education advisor Bidhan Chandra Roy, finance advisor Salehuddin Ahmed, and advisor on religious affairs, AFM Khalid Hossin, with the envoy calling for the restoration of direct flights and meeting a team from US-Bangla Airlines for the purpose. That started almost immediately when a Panama-flagged vessel, MV Yuan Xian Fa Zhan, operated by a Chinese shipping company, docked in Chattogram in November, bringing goods like ceramic and raw material from Pakistan to Bangladesh. This was the first direct cargo movement between the two countries. A second consignment followed in December, with the Bangladeshi authorities removing a clause that requires physical inspection of any cargo arriving from Pakistan.
A Flurry Of Visits
The bonhomie was also apparent at a December meeting in Cairo between Yunus and Sharif, where the former asked for a settlement of issues since 1971. This incidentally includes the repatriation of over 2 lakh stranded Urdu-speaking people who were full Pakistani citizens before the Liberation. Prior to this, Yunus had invited Shahbaz for a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September for a ceremony commemorating Bangladesh's 50th year as a member of the United Nations. It had key Pakistani officials in attendance, including Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, and Special Assistant Tariq Fatemi. Further acts of ‘friendship' included removing security checks on incoming Pakistanis, which was done through the Home Ministry, overseen by known India-baiter Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Md. Jahangir Alam Chowdhury, under whose tenure there had been much bad blood on border policy.
The Pakistani High Commissioner has also remained extremely active, inviting the Bangladesh army to pay a visit—which they did, through a delegation led by Lieutenant General SM Kamrul Hassan (Principal Staff Officer). That Bangladesh did not send a high-level officer might showcase its caution in this area.
Rawalpindi remained unfazed. It sent to Dhaka a team led by Major General Shahid Amir Afsar, the ISI's Director-General of Analysis and earlier Pakistan's defence attache in Beijing. Incidentally, he is said to speak fluent Chinese. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar is expected to visit Bangladesh soon, even as a Joint Business Council has been set up this January. The next move could be the actual supply of defence equipment, offered to Bangladesh, especially the JF-17, not to mention the already announced training programme for Bangladeshi army senior officers. It's all moving very fast, despite political chaos within Pakistan and terrorist attacks almost daily. This is Rawalpindi exploiting its opportunity to the full before an elected government comes in.
China Takes a Bow
Meanwhile, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Touhid Hossain was on a rather anxious visit to Beijing, hoping that China would assist his country against a severe economic crisis that has pushed inflation to almost 10%. Hussain was apparently hoping that China would reduce interest rate on loans from 2-3% to 1%, and requested Beijing to extend the loan repayment period from 20 to 30 years. In the event, China tickboxed almost all requests. It agreed 'in principle' to reduce interest rates, extended the repayment period, and notably also offered hospitals in Kunming for medical treatment, and funding another one in Dhaka for specialised treatment. It is well-known that ‘medical tourism' from Bangladesh is one of the mainstays of the relationship with Delhi, accounting for some 50-60% of the total medical tourism in India. Luo Zhaohui, the chairman of the China International Development Cooperation Agency, responded positively to requests for more concessional loans and projects, such as the upgradation and modernisation of Mongla Port and the establishment of digital connectivity and 4G expansion. Some of these loans are promised to be turned into grants.
Meanwhile, Chinese textile companies are shifting their base to Bangladesh, and thus the development of ports, including Chattogram, is vital to Beijing. Nothing was said about the Teesta River project—a contentious issue for India—but that doesn't mean that it will be abandoned.
Money Matters
The visit provides good relief to Dhaka. Between 2019 and 2024, Dhaka received nearly as much Chinese investment as Pakistan—a far larger country—through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the Chinese ambassador, Bangladesh has received some $4.5 billion under this initiative, with another $22.94 billion in construction contracts, generating about 5.5 lakh jobs in the country.
Before the visit, the Jamaat-e-Islami had also reached out to the Chinese ambassador for help on the Rohingya issue, an admittedly difficult problem for the small, highly overpopulated country. Beijing's fleet visit to Chattogram in early October, though probably planned before the fall of the Hasina government, has also sent a powerful message of support.
The goodwill for China is evident in that nothing has been said about the fact that Beijing did support Hasina fully—probably more than India in hard terms—and is owed $251 million in interest yearly, in Bangladesh's overall debt that has crossed a $100 bn for the first time in years. Islamabad may not enjoy the same goodwill, but it has something else: a strong ground presence and a good intelligence network through religious parties. It is also, as seen above, already digging into different sectors, using the anti-India sentiment to the full.
Three To Tango
With the offer of the JF-17s and the already supplied Chinese submarines, there is an undeniable triangular link developing. The question is whether a new government will continue with these policies, especially regarding Pakistan. In this instance, India has to act quickly, particularly with regard to the Rohingya, a ‘delivery' that could lead to enormous goodwill. That could simply be a generous aid package and a diplomatic outreach to Myanmar, despite the inherent risks in relations with that country. Though the US has reacted negatively to the Yunus administration—especially given its ties with former President Clinton—it is not in India's interest to alienate Dhaka. And, in all practicality, neither is it good for Bangladesh. In time, there will arise a need to publicise this reality, especially in terms of economic benefits for Dhaka at a time when Yunus's disastrous policies are being seen for what they are.
The Indian media also needs to restrain itself in condemning the students and their very real ‘revolution', and must acknowledge the very real and severe corruption that was endemic to parts of the previous government. All of this and more needs to be done before a new government is elected, which will decide whether Yunus's self-serving policies are at all good for a country that once was known as an economic miracle.
(Tara Kartha is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)