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Recent border tensions between India and Bangladesh have led to public tensions, even as the whole political situation resembles something close to a noodle soup. Bangladeshi government officials—or semi-government, in this case—say one thing and do another. Then there are the endless vitriolic statements from the so-called ‘student leaders', who seem more intent on consolidating their power than getting to their stated goal of ‘real democracy'. One wonders what direction is being set by Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus, the unelected ‘head' of the country, as he wades into the mess, together with his officials. Meanwhile, the border situation has calmed down marginally, though there are reports still of tensions at specific points, even as political barbs continue to be aimed from Dhaka.
What Triggered Things
What is in the news is the fact that the Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) stopped work at some six to seven points along the border, despite the 2015 Land Boundary agreement and existing protocols for dealing with such disputes. The media picked up the news and ran with it, failing to mention that the whole situation had begun after the Border Security Force foiled smugglers from entering the area. The incident spiralled out of control as villagers on both sides stepped into the melee. The truth of the matter is that most parts of the 4,096-km border, particularly Malda district, where the clashes occurred, are known for smuggling of all kinds, particularly fake Indian currency supplied by racketeers along the Indo-Nepal border, phensedyl, a banned cough syrup used in place of alcohol in Bangladesh, and cattle, a highly profitable racket for both sides.
All of this means that incidents of firing are common as border forces try to deal with a variety of crimes. Inevitably, that leads to incidents being blown out of proportion or taken out of context. In the present instance, a prominent Bangladeshi daily railed against India's “ruthless border policy” citing “alleged” deaths, without any attempt to verify what the incident had been all about. Another prominent source reported the death of a Bengali man, again “allegedly” beaten to death by the BSF, on the basis of vague statements from his widow. These comments are then multiplied poisonously on social media, on both sides. The simple fact is this: border criminals jeopardise the security of both countries. It is entirely in the interest of both India and Bangladesh to cooperate over this. Which is why the meeting of the border forces—postponed twice after the removal of the Hasina government—on January 16 at Benapole ended with public declarations of friendship and BGB officials calling it a ‘productive' session.
The ‘Official' Version
There is also the official version. Home Adviser Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Md. Jahangir Alam Chowdhury declared the border “almost normal” and stated that the construction of barbed wire fencing had already been stopped. That's not the reality; fencing has resumed peacefully, as per agreements. Chowdhury, who earlier headed BGB in what can only be described as a ‘difficult' period, also declared that his ‘government' had not been consulted before the BSF began its fencing—also far from the truth—and that the Indian High Commissioner had been ‘summoned'. Foreign Secretary Jashimuddin chose to go the same route, adding, significantly, that earlier border agreements made between 2010 and 2023 were “unequal”. In short, agreements signed under Sheikh Hasina's government are going to be questioned. India's Ministry of External Affairs reacted by summoning the Bangladeshi High Commissioner, with its statement saying simply that all protocols and agreements had been adhered to. In sum, what was in essence a smuggling-induced incident of trivial proportions was turned into a major incident by political actors.
Military Stays Aloof—Almost
Meanwhile, the military chose to remain aloof from these political shenanigans, with Army Chief Gen. Waker uz Zaman taking a realistic tone in an interview, observing that both India and Bangladesh need each other, and “we will not do anything …that goes against their strategic interests”. He added, “ We will expect that our neighbour does nothing that is contrary to our interests” referring also to the water-sharing issue.
Amidst all this, a positive development went almost entirely unnoticed. An army delegation comprising both serving officers and retired officers attended the ‘Vijay Diwas' in Delhi, to the delight of veterans on this side as well. What did get coverage was an entirely unnecessary Twitter onslaught against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's congratulatory messages on the 1971 victory, by student ‘advisors' Hasnat Abdullah, Asif Nazrul and Ishraque Hossain of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP). Most tellingly, Yunus chose to retweet one of these comments. Again, a dual position, with political actors weighing in to turn an entirely non-issue into a political game.
Much is also being made of a visit to Pakistan of an army delegation led by Lt-Gen S M Kamr-ul-Hassan, Principal Staff Officer (PSO) of the Armed Forces Division of Bangladesh. That's not an office with the highest military powers. What is worrying, however, is that for the first time since the Liberation, the Pakistan army will return to Bangladesh to train senior army officers. In that same week came a decision to issue visas for Pakistanis without security clearance. This was done by the Home Ministry's Security Services Division. That would seem like another political dig, except that there are rumours of divisions within the army, which includes a faction led by a Lieutenant General earlier heading military intelligence and close to student leaders. This is not unlikely given Bangladesh's history of coups and counter coups. However, the point is that the Army Chief will have to maintain a careful balance in his position to avoid losing authority, particularly since he hasn't been in his post for too long.
Students Have Lost The Plot
The student leaders, meanwhile, who were once heading Bangladesh's ‘anti-discriminatory' movement, are now doing some discrimination of their own. Hasnat Abdullah recently threatened to ‘break the pens‘ of ‘fascists' arguing for allowing the Awami league to participate in elections. Another student ‘advisor', Salahuddin Amar, refused to attend the commencement ceremony of a new batch of police officers citing political interference. Given the hatred against the police, this step is politically popular, though hardly realistic considering that these officers are from an entirely new batch. It seems Hasnat and his cronies, whose virulently anti-India position is now melded with hatred for Hasina, want to position themselves as candidates in future elections. Yunus seems to be in the same game as he dodges the question of announcing elections. The quietest of all is the Jamaat e Islami, whose members are everywhere—in the bureaucracy, the army, and almost every other institution. They may emerge as the hidden kingmakers. Every visiting foreign dignitary, including the European Union ambassador, calls on their headquarters. Once openly pro-Pakistan and anti-India, they are likely to follow a more cautious line now as they play the political chess board.
Smoke And Mirrors
India has announced that it will try to sort out a visa crisis as many centres have closed due to fears of violence. Over 1,500 students are waiting for their visas even as the High Commission is processing emergency medical cases. Trade has resumed at its normal pace and various branches of the government are going about their bilateral business, despite reports of ‘scrutiny' of India-assisted projects. However, all this is political noise; nothing has been done yet. Expect more of the same till a government is not just elected but settles down to normal business.
Meanwhile, nothing at all has been said in public about the fact that about 10% of Bangladesh's total debt is owed to China. Foreign Advisor Touhid Hossain will soon be in Beijing with a request to extend repayments by 30 years and for budget support. In sum, the whole issue is like smoke and mirrors. What is seen in public is far from the reality. Delhi would be wise to wait it out, quietly. In the present storm of political verbal excess, the less said, the better.
(Tara Kartha is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)