PM [1]
Rank : Helper
Status : Super Owner
#1
Justin Trudeau has announced that he will be stepping down as Canadian Prime Minister and the leader of Canada's Liberal Party in the coming months, bowing to an angry electorate amid political infighting and uncertain economic prospects. Mr Trudeau said he would continue with both his roles until the party chooses a new leader to take it into the next election, which must be held by late October this year.
"It's time for a reset," he told reporters outside his residence in Ottawa, adding that he had suspended Parliament until March 24.
"I truly feel that removing the contention around my own continued leadership is an opportunity to bring the temperature down," the Canadian Prime Minister added.
The announcement came amid a gridlocked Parliament, with legislators alarmed by Mr Trudeau's Liberal Party's miserable pre-election polling numbers. It left Canada in political flux just as the incoming Donald Trump administration has vowed to impose punishing tariffs on Canadian imports. Here is what might happen next:
When Will A New Prime Minister Be Chosen?
Unlike the process in other countries like India and Australia, where legislators elect party leaders and can remove them overnight, in Canada they are chosen by special leadership conventions that can take months to organize. Therefore, till a new leader is elected, Mr Trudeau will stay on both as prime minister and head of the ruling Liberal Party.
How Long Will It Take To Elect A New PM?
Mr Trudeau said he had asked the party to start the process of choosing a new leader. Liberal president Sachit Mehra said he would call a meeting of the party's national board this week to begin the process, but gave no further details.
However, the Liberals take a very long time to choose a new leader, and the party may take a long enough time that it has to fight the next election with Mr Trudeau still in charge. When Mr Trudeau won the Liberal leadership in April 2013, the contest lasted exactly five months. In 2006, it lasted almost eight months.
But in the face of miserable pre-election polling numbers under Mr Trudeau's leadership, the Liberal Party will likely announce a shortened contest designed to ensure that Mr Trudeau's replacement is in office as soon as possible. Even though the polls strongly indicate that the Liberals will lose the election, no matter who the leader is. The scale of the defeat could be tempered if Mr Trudeau is not in charge.
Who Might Replace Justin Trudeau?
The prospect of an election mauling might deter some candidates, especially if the party is crushed and ends up a shadow of its current self. However, those who could run include Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, Transport Minister Anita Anand, Foreign Minister Melanie Joly as well as former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England may also participate in the race. But, the tradition dictates that Mr Carney, who is currently Chair of Brookfield Asset Management, would need to secure a seat in parliament in order to take office if he won the party leadership.
When Will The Next Election Be Held?
While announcing his resignation, Mr Trudeau said that parliament - which was due to resume work on January 27 - would instead be prorogued, or suspended, until March 24.
This means opposition parties-- who had originally planned to unveil non-confidence motions to bring his minority government down as soon as they could after January 27-- will now have to wait until some time in May since the government controls the agenda for most of each session.
As a result, a new election is unlikely to be held before May at the earliest, that too, only if all the opposition parties vote together on the motion, and defeat the Liberals. When parliament resumes, the government has to formally unveil its plans for the new session in the so-called Speech from the Throne. However, the Liberals are not obliged to make this subject to a vote of no confidence.
Parliament is scheduled to start its summer break no later than June 20 and if the Liberals are still in power by then, an election would be held as scheduled at the end of October.
Can Liberals Be Removed From Power Before Election?
Under the original parliamentary calendar, the House of Commons elected chamber had been due to vote on spending measures in late March. This would trigger a confidence vote.
However, it is unclear whether that vote would still be scheduled for late March and if it were, whether the opposition parties would vote to bring down the Liberals, either led by Mr Trudeau or a new party head. The Conservatives, who are favoured to win the next election, and the left-leaning, small New Democratic Party have both made clear they want to defeat Trudeau on a formal motion of no-confidence that they themselves have presented.
The Liberals could also be brought down over their annual budget, which would most likely be unveiled in April. The initial vote on the legislation implementing the budget would be a matter of confidence but the government has some flexibility as to when that would take place.
Is There Any Other Way Justin Trudeau Could Be Forced Out?
The ultimate constitutional power in Canada lies with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of Britain's King Charles, the head of state. She can in theory remove Trudeau, but there is virtually no chance of that happening.
"The governor general won't dismiss a prime minister who still holds the confidence of the Commons," said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa's Carleton University.